New Hampshire primary open thread - AP calls it for Hillary, McCain pulls it off

by: Pam Spaulding

Tue Jan 08, 2008 at 19:48:19 PM EST

(UPDATE, 10:35: with 66% in, AP calls it for Hillary.) 

These grids are from the WaPo front page, (Also: check out WMUR's coverage from NH).

N.H. Democratic Primary
Candidate	Votes	%
Hillary Clinton	110,550	39
Barack Obama	102,883	36
John Edwards	47,803	17
Bill Richardson	12,987	5
Other	8,111	3
Key: Winner Precincts: 96% | Updated: 2:04 AM ET | Source: AP

11:50: Oh, I just heard NBC’s Brian Williams bring up “The Bradley effect,” (aka the Wilder effect).

a phenomenon which has led to inaccurate voter opinion polls in some American political campaigns between a white candidate and a non-white candidate.[1][2][3] Specifically, there have been instances in which statistically significant numbers of white voters tell pollsters in advance of an election that they are either genuinely undecided, or likely to vote for the non-white candidate, but those voters exhibit a different behavior when actually casting their ballots. White voters who said that they were undecided break in statistically large numbers toward the white candidate, and many of the white voters who said that they were likely to vote for the black candidate ultimately cast their ballot for the white candidate. This reluctance to give accurate polling answers has sometimes extended to post-election exit polls as well.

Researchers who have studied the issue theorize that some white voters give inaccurate responses to polling questions because of a fear that they might appear to others to be racially prejudiced. Some research has suggested that the race of the pollster conducting the interview may factor into that concern. At least one prominent researcher has suggested that with regard to pre-election polls, the discrepancy can be traced in part by the polls’ failure to account for general conservative political leanings among late-deciding voters.

I’m not sure that it applies here, given the complicating factor of gender bias, and what we can now call “The Tweety Effect,” where the misogyny of a talking head in the MSM so enrages a demographic that they go out and vote in a manner that will put egg on the face of the talking head. [I wonder if "The Tweety Effect" will catch fire; Digby cited me.] 

Brad Friedman of the BradBlog thinks something is not quite right about the results; the optical voting machines in the state are the same machines that were featured in the HBO doc Hacking Democracy. There could be voting machine monkey business, or it could be The Tweety Effect. I just hope it's not the Bradley effect. Only time will tell.

11:06: Hillary is speaking now, and looks relieved and says she "found her own voice." Not sure what that means exactly, though she does reference speaking from her heart (is this referring to her "emotional moment" in the diner?). 

10:55: Obama is giving another of his rousing speeches, I haven't heard a concession yet.

10:14: Edwards, still in 3rd, is speaking. He's not getting out of the race, despite Tweety calling for his exit. 9:40: It's obviously going to be very, very close.

9:30: Boy, Obama is closing in after Hillary Clinton holding a steady 4-5 point lead up until now. The college towns haven't reported in yet, and those are expected to go to Obama, though the high turnout of women has broken for Hillary Clinton. Very interesting.

It's has already been called for McCain (around 8:30) and Romney and Huckabee have called and conceded. Romney's campaign is in a world of hurt now. CNN has Fred Thompson at 2%; he only manages to fall into the pitiful "Other" designation here. What will the Freepers do?

N.H. Republican Primary
Candidate	Votes	%
John McCain	86,802	37
Mitt Romney	73,806	32
Mike Huckabee	26,035	11
Rudy Giuliani	20,054	9
Other	26,683	11
Key: Winner Precincts: 96% | Updated: 2:04 AM ET | Source: AP

Also, as mentioned in the comments, Rudy Giuliani pulled in a poor showing; he's at 9%, neck and neck with Ron Paul (8%). That's pathetic.

Will you be part of the process that determines who's nominated? I won't, since NC's primary is May 6. The list of primary dates is after the jump.

Here is the rest of the primary lineup.

JANUARY 2008
• January 3: Iowa (Winners: Obama, Huckabee)
• January 5: Wyoming (R) (Winner: Romney)
• January 8: New Hampshire (Winners: Clinton, McCain)
• January 15: Michigan
• January 19: Nevada, South Carolina (R)
• January 26: South Carolina (D)
• January 29: Florida

FEBRUARY 2008
• February 1: Maine (R)
• February 5: Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Idaho (D), Illinois, Kansas (D), Massachusetts, Minnesota, Missouri, New Jersey, New Mexico (D), New York, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Utah
• February 9: Louisiana, Kansas (R)
• February 10: Maine (D)
• February 12: District of Columbia, Maryland, Virginia
• February 19: Hawaii (D)*, Washington, Wisconsin

MARCH 2008
• March 4: Ohio, Rhode Island, Texas, Vermont
• March 8: Wyoming (D)
• March 11: Mississippi

APRIL 2008
• April 22: Pennsylvania

MAY 2008
• May 6: Indiana, North Carolina
• May 13: Nebraska, West Virginia
• May 20: Kentucky, Oregon
• May 27: Idaho (R)

JUNE 2008
• June 3: Montana, New Mexico (R), South Dakota

(I moved the new info on possible Clinton shakeups to the prior related thread to give this thread more room for NH updates)