| For whatever reason, seven years of George W. Bush have so traumatized the average voter that they are willing to come out in unheard-of numbers in all demographics to vote for a candidate who represents, in their minds, a complete 180 on all fronts.
That's Hillary's real problem. She and her campaign reek of establishment entitlement, a history of being in Washington in bed with the same consultant class and advisers who wish to re-install themselves in power positions. These are people who obviously thought they were smarter strategists than anyone else in the room, and Clinton trusted that they had their finger on the pulse of the electorate.
What they had their finger on was a light switch connected to bad wiring. They campaigned like it was 1999, racking up the endorsements of establishment leaders of the various Dem constituencies, including the old-guard black leaders they were familiar with. The Clinton team rifled through their tattered rolodexes to do the same re: LGBTs, hispanics, women.
These folks, in many cases, are simply out of touch with younger voters and voters living in the real world who went to polls. Black leaders that Clinton counted on to "represent" didn't deliver, and it's clear those leaders didn't know that they couldn't deliver either. They are all breathing the same stale establishment air, air that goes to their brains and apparently limits, to a great extent, rational thinking to matters of preserving (and indeed, improving, with regime change) their positions of access and power.
It doesn't help that the former president, Bill Clinton, has proven to be more of a liability than anyone could have predicted. I think voters see Hillary Clinton and simply cannot see "change." Or at least change they would like to see.
Our country's issues with gender bias places everything Clinton does under a microscope (how she "manages" her husband, the "emotional moment" in NH, etc.), and that makes it a horrible uphill battle for a female candidate, given who rules the roost in the MSM. However, I would argue that gender may play less of a role in this race because of the broad demographic voting patterns we are seeing here. I think the problem is that the woman is Hillary Clinton -- it's quite possible that a woman could have faired better in this race, just not this one. She and her team cannot remake her to be someone else -- an outsider. Apparently voters have been willing to gamble on "hope" and "change" when offered it as an alternative. Is that good or bad? I don't have an answer, but it looks like we're about to find out.
Back to the "empty suit" problem for those of you out there who feel Hillary's experience and competence on the issues have been given short shrift because of the power of Obama's connection (whatever pixie dust he has) with voters. Her supporters claim he's unvetted, no one is looking at his policies, etc. People are examining them, certainly the GOP will pick them apart. I don't think that translates, however, into an argument Clinton is the one who is more electable, something that her campaign has said repeatedly even as the demographics in the voting results pile up evidence to the contrary.
The problem isn't the policy positions, I think the main dismay among the Clintonistas is that the voters are responding to something Obama has -- charisma and a message that connects -- that she cannot match, and that they don't know how to successfully counter that.
Unfortunately it's pretty hard to wag your finger at the American public and tell them not to be fooled, or that they are stupid for thinking with their hearts, not their heads. That doesn't garner more votes, in fact it can cause blowback. That is a dilemma for a campaign ready to go on cruise control to the convention.
Last night Obama gave a speech in Texas that was both meant to inspire and inform, more wonky than the usual oratory. It's clear he knows he has to win over people with more than the silver tongue.
Will Obama stand up to GOP attacks if he's the nominee? Who knows, but the GOP will get down in the gutter through 527 orgs, of course, so McCain and the party keep their hands clean. Obama will face fury from the right, hate radio and the Little Green Footballs set that will be unprecedented. After all, Rush thinks it's great fun to run "Barack, the Magic Negro." I dread the thought of what new efforts in misogyny we would see if Clinton is the nominee and the GOP attack dogs are unleashed. One can only hope that the American people are finally ready to put a stake through the heart of these blood-sucking, fear-baiting, spirit-sapping media, "Christians," moralists and bigots.
I welcome their continuing descent into the gutter; it will further marginalize their movement in a time where the people that pick our president are looking for positive change, not more gloom and doom -- like 100, 1000, or 10,000 years in Iraq, as McCain plans to sell himself.
Given the rough and tumble of this primary and all the barbs tossed between Obama and Clinton supporters, it's important to remind ourselves about total turnout and who really faces the uphill battle -- McCain, A snapshot from Wisconsin:
Obama: 645,554
Clinton: 452,590
McCain: 224,122
Huckabee: 151,114
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UPDATE: Oh, well, why wait for a McCain 527 -- it looks like tapped-out big Clinton donors are going to hit the gutter first by forming one on behalf of Hillary. Sigh. Pro-Clinton 527 Prepares For Ohio, PA and Texas
Allies of Hillary Clinton plan an expensive, stealth campaign to buttress her standing in the must-win states of Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania.
They're canvassing Clinton donors for pledges of up to $100,000 in the hope of raising at least $10M by the end of next week. The money will be placed in the account of a political committee organized under section 527 of the tax code.
A Democrat who was briefed on the project said that Pennsylvania attorney William A. K. Titelman is leading the effort to solicit money. Titleman, who raised money for Gov. Bill Richardson's presidential campaign, has not contributed money to Clinton. He did not respond to an e-mail seeking comment.
By law, the 527 cannot coordinate its activities with the Clinton campaign, although at least one major Clinton donor with direct ties to the campaign said last night that the effort was an open secret among donors.
(Update: Per ABC's Jake Tapper, the group is calling itself the "American Leadership Project" and is staffed by several veterans of the Clinton White House.)
A Clinton spokesman said he knew nothing about the 527. |
