Zogby: Pennsylvania primary within margin of error

She will blame

(and not in this order):

1. The media, for constantly polling people. Every time a poll shows her (erroneuosly, of course) dropping a point, it has created a false image that she is losing ground and that false image has caused her to lose more points.

2. Moveon.org, who has intimidated folks at the caucuses and primaries against voting for HRC. Never mind the fact that one has to be a registered resident/voter in that area- no, somehow Moveone.org has managed to infiltrate the caucus/voter system like a rabid travelling pack of wild dogs.

3. Barack Obama. Because if he would just realize that SHE is supposed to be the candidate this time and not him, he would have already have had the good grace to have stand aside. Never mind the fact that he has won 28 to her 14 contests, leads in the popular vote and delegate counts. It's really all his fault.

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by: Louise @ Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 08:37:12 AM CDT

GAH!! She's at it AGAIN!

As one brilliant commenter recently wrote here, if Obama were to suddenly walk across the Potomac, Hillary would start going off on how "Obama Doesn't Swim".

Please let this end SOON....


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by: Louise @ Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 18:28:09 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

LOL

Or she'd complain: Why is he anti-social, why doesn't he take the ferry like everyone else??

"In order to maintain an untenable position, you have to be actively ignorant."  The Colbert Report

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by: Lev Raphael @ Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 19:54:31 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

She ought to blame

her own campaign handlers and her husband. There have been too many fumbles for us to believe any longer in the viability of a CLinton campaign against McCain

I tell you Chica that no greater abomination exists than women denying their spirit of sisterhood and instead becoming the oppressor. -Rebeca, Universidad Complutense de Madrid

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by: MauraHennessey @ Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 08:54:42 AM CDT

Nail biter in Norristown (PA)

1) If Clinton wins by a few points, I imagine that Clinton won't split that hair and call it a resounding victory from the people of Pennsylvania.

2) The delegate count can't be closed by anything at this point in the campaign, except for death, or a live boy or a dead girl (but Clinton isn't above using any GOP tactic at this point).  

3) If she somehow manages to lose PA, she'll probably explain it away like the other primaries she lost as "It's not important".

The fact that Obama has been able to make such inroads into what was thought to be safe Clinton territory is telling.  Or it should be to the public when they stop and consider that fact.  If they do, that is.

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by: metalsguy @ Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 09:02:31 AM CDT

Same Pattern Every Time

I may be wrong, but I don't know of a single state where, once the match-up was Clinton-Obama, Clinton gained on her early leads. Even in states she won handily on Super Tuesday, like California and Massachusetts, Obama was closing the gap at the very end (although not as much as the pollsters predicted). We saw the same pattern in Ohio and Texas, and now we are seeing it in PA.

IMHO, even if she somehow lost PA, and the closeness of recent polls suggest it might be a matter of turnout right now, she would try to stay in the race. I don't think she'll drop until Obama either has more than the needed delegates - both pledged and super - and/or she runs out of cash. His fund-raising has been steady, and they're doing the "million in a minute" thing on-line for Obama tomorrow, while the NYT is reporting that Clinton is struggling to find donors. In this game, money is a big necessity and running out may be the only way she'll accept it's over.  

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by: CPT_Doom @ Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 12:11:52 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Excellent point!

I'm pretty sure you're right, and it's the kind of pattern blogs have brought up, but the MSM has seemed to ignore.  In state after state where she was way ahead, her lead shrunk, even when Obama wasn't spending so much more than she was, as in PA.  And even the headlines now about PA focus on him trying to knock her out of the race or some such nonsense when the story is, once again, her shrinking lead in a state that was supposed to be a big win for her.

I don't think money will drive her out of the race, however.  She can always lends herself another five million, and surely that would be enough for the upcoming races in smaller states with less expensive media markets, on top of what she's able to squeeze out of her donor pool?

"In order to maintain an untenable position, you have to be actively ignorant."  The Colbert Report

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by: Lev Raphael @ Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 21:21:35 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

my prediction

if she wins by less than 6 percentage points, she calls it quits after she loses North Carolina.  

http://www.queersunited.blogspot.com

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by: hippie4lyfe @ Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 09:34:55 AM CDT

Clinton won't lose/nor will Obama

Whatever the point spread, she and her camp will claim victory.  Why and how?  Because they will say that Obama outspent them in advertising 3 or 4 to 1 and therefore the fact that he didn't win at all is a triumph.  They will ignore that 1) she should have won this state walking away and 2) she was way ahead in the polls.

Of course, Obama can claim a victory because weeks ago his campaign said that anything under a 10 point victory for Clinton was a loss,  but if it's over ten points they can still say that they fought her hard in a state that by rights should have been hers for a song.

It's kind of like Alice in Wonderland where everyone gest prizes.

I love this country.  So does Reverend Wright, btw, who served in the Marines while Dick Cheney got 5 deferments.  :-)

"In order to maintain an untenable position, you have to be actively ignorant."  The Colbert Report

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by: Lev Raphael @ Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 09:39:39 AM CDT

Pennsylvania Primary

Team Clinton will have confetti flowing down from the rafters if she wins by one vote.  At the end of the day, that is her right.

If Obama wins the Pennsylvania primary then Team Clinton will concede the nomination.

The unfortunate thing is that Clinton always gets the late-deciding folks to pull the lever on her behalf.   Obama's bitter comments coming out last week may have stunted his momentum in the state to a point that he can't overcome.

If so, then we go to the next set of contests and Indiana becomes the battleground...

peace, Villager

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by: Villager @ Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 10:01:57 AM CDT

I don't imagine Clinton dropping out until she has to.

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by: Karen in Kalifornia @ Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 10:32:36 AM CDT

has to,,,AKA the Democratic Converntion.

If I make sense? it was quite by accident.

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by: HappyCat @ Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 21:12:07 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Clinton will not

concede the nomination till they pry it from her cold, dead hands (to borow a phrase from a recently deceased nutjob who almost certainly preferred her to Obama).

Cynic, n.  A blackguard whose faulty vision sees things as they are, not as they ought to be.  
-Bierce, The Devil's Dictionary

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by: QScribe @ Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 10:50:24 AM CDT

She'll say that

It's one of those states that doesn't count.  As a matter of fact the Clinton campaign is moving away from their past practice of listing why each state doesn't count, such as having too high a Black population, or being a caucus state etc.  They have now decided that any state which holds its election on a Tuesday doesn't count.

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by: Paul In SF @ Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 11:28:01 AM CDT

In fact, her campaign

is suggesting a renicknaming- from "Super Tuesday" to "So What" Tuesday... ;)

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by: Louise @ Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 16:04:07 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

How about--

"Stupid Tuesday"?

"In order to maintain an untenable position, you have to be actively ignorant."  The Colbert Report

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by: Lev Raphael @ Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 19:55:45 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

But seriously (or even Butt Seriously)

It's funny how any campaign can say, Well, we won this state, therefore it means X.

No, you won that state against a Democrat in a primary.  That's all it means.  It doesn't predict squat about the general election.

"In order to maintain an untenable position, you have to be actively ignorant."  The Colbert Report

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by: Lev Raphael @ Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 19:57:39 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Here's my prediction:

If Hillary does NOT win the nomination, she will divorce her husband within the next few years.  I think she's been hanging on to him and putting up with his shenanigans all these years primarily because she saw him as her ticket back into the White House.  But since he has proved himself to be nothing but a liability on the campaign trail, his popularity is waning, and his legacy forever scarred, why would she put up with all his baggage anymore?  Their marriage has always seemed to me to be one of mutual political convenience.

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by: Naperville Mom @ Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 22:32:19 PM CDT

Nah.

There's always 2012 or 2016...HRC knows she doesn't have a chance in hell now, but she's hanging as to allow McSame to be a 1 termer. Then she'll come back. Watch and see.

But next time, she'll have Bill off building houses w/Jimmy Carter or some other charitable/time consuming act as to keep him OUT of her way!!

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by: Louise @ Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 06:59:36 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

I think not

Back during impeachment, when I was a huge defender of both Clintons (letters, emails, signing petitions, contributions) I thought it was very naive and moralistic for people to wonder why she didn't leave him. I think they are deeply bound to each other through love, life, politics, epic ups and downs. With that kind of enmeshment,  I can't see either of them wanting out.  They are a team, for better or--as we've seen in this cycle--worse.  I believe he will run for office--maybe Governor of New York. He's certainly young enough not to abandon politics entirely.  

"In order to maintain an untenable position, you have to be actively ignorant."  The Colbert Report

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by: Lev Raphael @ Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 07:22:08 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

One of these things is

not like the other.

This morning's NYTimes headline:
Trailing in Pennsylvania, Obama Sharpens Tone

The lead sentence of that same article as excerpted by GoogleNews (I kept a screen shot):

Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton, with a dwindling lead in Pennsylvania primary polls, spoke to supporters Sunday at Liberty High School in Bethlehem, Pa.

Clicking through, here's the lead sentence at the Times' website:

READING, Pa. - Senator Barack Obama sharpened his tone against Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton on Sunday as the six-week Pennsylvania primary contest raced to a close, with the rivals marshaling extensive resources in a battle for undecided voters and delegates that could determine whether the Democratic nominating fight carries on.

Electricity's for light bulbs!

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by: n8nyc @ Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 05:33:07 AM CDT

The GOP's right wing loves her

Vote for Hillary!

She's being boosted by:

Rupert Murdoch

Richard Mellon Scaife

Ed Rollins

Grover Norquist

The National Review

The American Spectator

http://politicalticker.blogs.c...

Who needs anyone else?

"In order to maintain an untenable position, you have to be actively ignorant."  The Colbert Report

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by: Lev Raphael @ Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 06:28:51 AM CDT