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He is "praying that Pam Spaulding will "turn away from her wicked and sinful promotion of homosexual behavior." (CCLM's web site, 10/15/07)


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"I have been mocked over and over again by ungodly and unprincipled anti-christian lesbians."
(from "Six Years In Sodom: From The Journal Of James Hartline," 9/4/2006, written from the "homosexual stronghold" of Hillcrest in San Diego).

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"A nutty lesbian blogger."
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who monitors yours Bevis ?? Just thought I would drop you a line,so the rest of your life is not wasted.
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Clinton wins Kentucky, race chasm proven again

by: Pam Spaulding

Tue May 20, 2008 at 20:30:00 PM EDT


Hillary Clinton easily breezed by Barack Obama in the Kentucky primary, bolstered again by working-class, less educated whites who made their decision to vote for her based on their unwillingness to vote for a black person. Another sad day in America.
Race played a decisive role in Hillary Rodham Clinton's lopsided victory in Tuesday's Democratic presidential primary in Kentucky, the latest contest to emphasize how fierce her rivalry against Barack Obama has become among the party's voters.

...Seven in 10 whites overall backed Clinton in Kentucky, including about three quarters of those who have not completed college. That made Tuesday's contest one of her stronger performances yet with those blue-collar white voters - little surprise considering Kentucky has one of the country's highest proportions of people who are not college graduates.

How much does prejudice factor into this? The Bluegrass State is living in another time, where Negroes knew their place -- and one of those places was certainly not on a ballot running for president.

* About one in five whites said race played a role in choosing a candidate;
* Nine in 10 of that group backed Clinton -- the highest proportion yet among the 28 states where that question has been asked in exit polls;
* Only three in 10 whites who said race was a factor said they would vote for Obama should he oppose McCain in November;
* Nearly four in 10 said they would back McCain, while the rest said they wouldn't vote.

These results in Kentucky (and West Virginia) neatly fit David Sirota's theory of the Race Chasm.  He originally pointed out the fascinating slice of statistics for In These Times. See the graph and a snippet below the fold.

Pam Spaulding :: Clinton wins Kentucky, race chasm proven again
Dave wrote this in March, so races after that aren't included, but all of the subsequent primaries followed the same pattern:
On the left of the graph, among the states with the smallest black population, Obama has destroyed Clinton. With the candidates differing little on issues, this trend is likely due, in part, to the fact that black-white racial politics are all but non-existent in nearly totally white states. Thus, Clinton has fewer built-in advantages. Though some of these states like Idaho or Wyoming have reputations for intolerance thanks to the occasional militia headlines, black-white interaction in these places is not a part of people's daily lives, nor their political decisions. Put another way, the dialect of racism-the hints of the Ferraro comment and codes of Bill Clinton's Jesse Jackson reference, for instance-is not politically effective because such language has not historically been a significant part of the local political discussion. That's especially true in the liberal-skewed Democratic primary.

On the right of the graph among the states with the largest black populations, Obama has also crushed Clinton. Unlike the super-white states, these states-many in the Deep South-have a long and sordid history of day-to-day, black-white racial politics, with Richard Nixon famously pioneering Republican's "southern strategy" to maximize the racist segregationist vote in general elections. "But in the Democratic primary the black vote is so huge [in these states], it can overwhelm the white vote," says Thomas Schaller, a political science professor at the University of Maryland-Baltimore. That black vote has gone primarily to Obama, helping him win these states by big margins.

It is in the chasm where Clinton has consistently defeated Obama. These are geographically diverse states from Ohio to Oklahoma to Massachusetts where racial politics is very much a part of the political culture, but where the black vote is too small to offset a white vote racially motivated by the Clinton campaign's coded messages and tactics. The chasm exists in the cluster of states whose population is above 6 percent and below 17 percent black, and Clinton has won most of them by beating Obama handily among white working-class voters.

In sum, Obama has only been able to eke out victories in three states with Race Chasm demographics, where African-American populations make up more than 6 percent but less than 17 percent of the total population.

When I read his piece earlier, I was taken aback at how obvious this all is, and how the results are so consistent. It says a lot about the racial dynamics and history in this country over time -- the results of unresolved conflict, self-segregation/lack of interaction and racially motivated voting has presented us with a serious opportunity to discuss and slice and dice what we are seeing here.

I wonder if an intelligent discussion can now be had about the reality of prejudice versus affinity voting. When the MSM continually frames this chasm as a problem for Obama -- it is a problem for all of us as a society. To have a whole demo of voters so poisoned by their own racism to vote for someone white simply to avoid casting a ballot for a person of color is sad. To then be willing to stay home in November or worse, vote for John McCain, who clearly doesn't represent working class interests, is tragic.

Needless to say that's the polar opposite of what I've called affinity voting -- blacks voting for Obama in large numbers. Many are voting for him because he  represents ideals and policies they agree with; that he's the first credible, positive black candidate for president is a huge historical bonus. Those who say this is some sort of race bloc voting are not seeing this clearly -- as I've mentioned before, if race alone was the deciding factor, we would have seen Alan Keyes or Cynthia McKinney racking up some serious vote totals. Black voters have been the most reliable voter base for the Democratic party regardless of the race of the candidate. That the party has spent so much time chasing this close-minded voting block of working class whites, even touting them, is kind of sad (or enraging, depending on your POV).

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my apologies
I live in Louisville, Kentucky.  Louisville is a fantastic city, diverse and progressive with something for everyone.  I grew up in Carter County, near the West Virginia border.  Carter County voted 9% for Obama.  If you think that is just because they happened to like Clinton, you are mistaken.  I visited my family last weekend, and it was all I could do not to get into my car and never return.  Listening to otherwise intelligent people posit conspiracy theories about a Muslim Manchurian candidate was just more than I could take.  If I never hear someone utter the phrase, "I'm not prejudiced, but" it will be too soon.  It should be noted that if Clinton were up against McCain in November, it is likely that a large percentage of the population will also have a problem with putting a woman into office if she's up against a white man.

This is really why Kentucky is economically behind much of the rest of the country.  As a whole, residents outside of the major population center are so unwilling to even attempt to relate to anyone different from them, and view pleas to do so as an attack on their values.  If you cannot relate to others, you get left behind in a global economy.

At any rate, come to Louisville.  It is a lovely place.  And feel free to ignore the existence of the rest of the state.


..so can Jim Webb.
Vietnam vet, Senator from Virginia for VEEP help at all?

It's the Hammer of JUSTICE,
It's the Bell of FREEDOM,
It's the Song about LOVE between,
my Brothers and my Sisters
...All over this Land.


[ Parent ]
My spouse
would agree with you regarding Webb for Veep. But I think he's got to go with Clinton, unfortunately.

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[ Parent ]
I feel ya, honey
My family skewed Hazard County, KY, real bad toward Obama, he may have made double digits.

That's because four years ago, we went for a holiday visit and integrated the holler where my sister had moved to. A holler with a name, that's how you know you really got there, as in, Go to the second break in the guardrail after the tanning salon and turn right down there by the refrigerator.

We educated a lot of nice people who had literally never met a person of color who wasn't even more dirt-poor than they themselves are.

If I were going to open a business there (because my child were being held at gunpoint until I did, is what it would take) I'd call it His N Hers. Tanning salon that does nails on one side, ammo and bait on the other, with a rack of Bibles in the middle. We'd be open all night, 'cept on Sundays.

Is Kentucky backward because anyone with gumption gets up and leaves? Or do those of us with gumption leave because it's backward? Chicken, egg...

But wait, there's more!


[ Parent ]
I really question the theory

I have no doubt that racism has a place in this primary.  I think the chart you put up is completely bogus.  It does not account for all the states and all the races.  That makes it bogus.

What about California where whites are a plurality but not a majority?  What say you there to the Clinton win?  And remember that Hillary is Senator to New York City and all of New York State.  Black Americans and POC are a political force there.

I also am not quite ready to accept that Black Americans have voted in a block for Obama.

AND I don't think we have given any weight to the sexism that has played out in this primary.  I believe it has been rampant in the MSM and in the voting.

No, Pam, it is really too early to really analylze this historic primary.  I think we should let it play out, let the numbers rest a bit, and see what the historians tell us.

But both racism AND sexism are afoot, that's for sure.

The fight for full LGBT Equality is NOT over.  Be strong and be ready to really fight!  And read my blog in your spare time! http://ravenhurst-ravenhurst.b...


Since I normally appreciate your posts a lot -
you might have missed this sentence:
"Dave wrote this in March, so races after that aren't included, but all of the subsequent primaries followed the same pattern:"

Just FYI.


[ Parent ]
Thanks but ...

California primary was on Super Tuesday in February.  Quite early I believe.

The fight for full LGBT Equality is NOT over.  Be strong and be ready to really fight!  And read my blog in your spare time! http://ravenhurst-ravenhurst.b...

[ Parent ]
Here's the methodology from the article
To date, 42 states and the District of Columbia have voted in primaries or caucuses. Factor out the two senators' home states (Illinois, New York and Arkansas), the two states where Edwards was a major factor (New Hampshire and Iowa) and the one state where only Clinton was on the ballot (Michigan) and you are left with 37 elections where the head-to-head Clinton-Obama matchup has been most clear. Subtract the Latino factor (a hugely important but wholly separate influence on the election) by removing the four states whose Hispanic population is over 25 percent (California, New Mexico, Texas and Arizona), and you are left with 33 elections that best represent how the black-white split has impacted the campaign.


[ Parent ]
there is a problem with that race chasm hypothesis
It assumes incorrectly in states like Kentucky that race is a part of the political discussion, but it isn't.  Virtually every POC is located in either Louisville or Lexington.  In my home county, there was exactly one black family.  I can assure you that race is never a part of the political discussion there.  Really in the vast majority of this state, it looks far more like Iowa racially.  

Um, yeah, exactly.
The problem isn't with the hypothesis or the data, the problem is your assumption that not talking about race means that race is not influencing anyone's vote.

My observation of rural KY is the opposite one, that the less diverse an area the more racism.

But wait, there's more!


[ Parent ]
CNN
Did anyone catch the montage of Kentucky primary voters this morning on CNN during which one older white man suggested that Barack Obama needed to act "less black?"  Please tell me I'm not the only one--I've been trying to find it on YouTube or C&L, but I'm not having any luck.

"Why Martha!  Your Sunday chapel dress!"

Wait! Hold on!
I think the graph is misleading. As a New Yorker, I just want to add that New York is Clinton country (much to my chagrin), as she is our senator. Of course people from NY are going to vote for her! The same goes for neighboring states like New Jersey and Connecticut, states that also fell into the chasm. The Clinton brand is strong in the tri-state area (NY, NJ, CT).

--------------------------------


http://www.gracethespot.com


Whoops
Does that say "NV" or "NY"? In any event, CT and NJ should be exempt, because it's still Clinton country in those states.

--------------------------------


http://www.gracethespot.com


[ Parent ]
if race is such a bad problem with whites not voting for obama, then
should he withdrawal from the race?  if we believe those exit polls, can he possibly get enough electoral votes in the general in enough states to win?  and here's a question - even if he gets a majority of the vote in a "bigot" state, there is not guarantee that the electors there, if they be bigots too, will give him the electoral votes.  after all, it is custom that they vote as does the popular majority, but there is no guarantee they will.

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Lurleen on Twitter.


It's a good question
What can we do about racism (and sexism and homophobia, for that matter) as it affects our electoral chances?

In the long term, we educate the young as the old bigots die off.  In the short term, we focus on issues as much as possible rather than demography.  When people don't see or understand that there are choices of substance in front of them, they're left to decide who they'd rather have a beer with.  (Or who loves Jesus the best.)

Let's sharpen the economic message and keep talking about the Iraq debacle as much as we possibly can.

"Our Liberties We Prize and Our Rights We Will Maintain" -- Iowa state motto


[ Parent ]
Too subtle,Lurleen
Of course if it was the other way around and the other candidate....

[ Parent ]
MA in the "race chasm"?!
that is utterly ridiculous.  i've lived there.  i know there are problems with racism, as there is everywhere.  however, it is not of the character of "race chasm".  the guy making that graph seems to refuse to consider that people don't always vote against obama.  some actually vote FOR clinton.  and not because she's white.  such a simplistic analysis does not help improve whatever racism problems may exist.  it is just inflammatory.  

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Lurleen on Twitter.


race counted today
Lurleen, I think in most states regardless of which candidate won, a few voted based on race, a few voted based on gender, and they generally canceled out each other.  Thus, such talk from either side can be counterproductive.  However, today it is to my great chagrin that race mattered a great deal.  It is so acceptable to be racist in parts of my home state that people will actually admit to it to a reporter.  As an Obama supporter, I wouldn't mind a Clinton win in Kentucky if I didn't really and truly believe there was such nefarious meaning behind that win.

I'm really wishing Louisville could secede today.


[ Parent ]
i'm not talking about today, i'm talking about
the utterly ridiculous graph above which puts massachusetts in the "race chasm".  i am not ok with my former home state being branded that way.  to understate the matter, it is not productive.

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Lurleen on Twitter.


[ Parent ]
It's data.
Data has no agenda.

Feel free to argue the premises or the conclusion, but MA is a majority-white state with a lot more black people than say, Iowa. Obama lost MA, which if education of voters were the only factor he should have won.

Deval Patrick notwithstanding, Obama the Harvard lawyer wasn't able to pull out MA.

That says something to me.

But wait, there's more!


[ Parent ]
data has no agenda
but people who misinterpret it most certainly do.

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Lurleen on Twitter.


[ Parent ]
Regional cultures
I don't think Sirota's analysis is particularly interesting or helpful, though it does offer some crude hints.  The real answers seem to be in the various cultural and political histories (including racial politics) of the states.

Looking at primary results on a map gives a much clearer picture than looking at numbers along a mostly arbitrary axis.  Here's some maps someone put together and posted at OpenLeft.  This one, in particular, is pretty striking.

"Our Liberties We Prize and Our Rights We Will Maintain" -- Iowa state motto


very interesting maps
It would be interesting to overlay the other state map with last election's red/blue electoral college map....Obama is winning Democratic primaries and caucases in areas that go red....my drift...sure hope the democrats can get out the black vote come November...especially in the South.

[ Parent ]
Those sure are interesting maps.
So interesting, I need a drink.

The map you linked there shows a country that is going to have a President McCain, because urban areas don't get electoral votes--states do.



But wait, there's more!


[ Parent ]
yes there is racism. but...
I think it is strategically harmful to make out like racism is a white disease and to put classes of whites completely on the defensive, even if they deserve it.  If Obama is the nominee, he will need these racist whites to win.  I'm not sure what the best approach to them is, but calling whole states "race chasm" states doesn't sound to me like a smart way to win over voters.

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Lurleen on Twitter.


double standard
Why is it racist that Kentuckians vote for Hillary, yet no one calls it racism when 90% of african americans vote for Obama.....

Now thats a double standard if I ever heard of one


We wondered that ourselves last night.


[ Parent ]
VT and ME,
with the highest white population percentages, both went for Obama. Guess they're both more sexist??

Oh please.

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[ Parent ]
two reasons
1.  Because voters in Kentucky and West Virginia openly said they were basing their vote on race.
2.  Because African Americans were not voting that way until the Clinton campaign started race-baiting.  

The difference there is that the African American voters who are voting overwhelming for Obama are voting for him, as opposed to many of these voters in my home state here who in voting for Clinton were really voting against Obama.  There is a difference.


[ Parent ]
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