| Kennedy, Clinton, Clinton, Biden, Obama, Gustav, Giuliani, Palin, and McCain: the American people have now been introduced to the latest cast of characters who will populate this year's most watched reality program, the 2008 Presidential Election.
The storylines have been laid out: will Kennedy survive to see the first African-American President? Will Hillary fall on her sword? Will Bill Clinton get out of Obama's way? Will Biden's penchant for verbal gaffes prove a liability to the Obama campaign? Will Obama connect with Middle America? Will Gustav (or another act of God) change the dynamics of the race? Will Giuliani's sarcasm rally the GOP base? Will Palin's unvetted political history prove a distraction? Will John McCain's experience as a POW prove enough of a motivating force to elect him President? These are the questions that burn men's souls in 2008.
Looking back over the past two weeks what have we seen? What have we learned? What can we expect moving forward? |
First of all let us go back to Denver, where the Democrats hosted a flawless, four day extravaganza culminating in the shocking sight of 84,000 Americans gathered to hear Barack Obama accept his party's nomination for President of the United States. The goal of the DNC this year was three-fold. One, put to rest talk of divisions with the party. To this end Hillary Clinton graciously fell on her sword and endorsed Obama by telling party activists "Barack Obama is my candidate". Two, rally the base. The sheer numbers out of Denver address this point. Beyond just those 84,000 Americans who watched the speech live from Invesco Field, 40,000,000 Americans (give or take a few hundred thousand) watched the speech on TV. Lastly, the Obama campaign needed to lay out the themes of the general election. This Obama accomplished by seamlessly weaving into his acceptance speech specific policy initiatives, including: cuts in capital gains, and energy independence. But he went further than just policy, he challenged status quo politics by urging Americans to place the bitter wedge issues of the past 16 years (guns, gays and abortion) behind them. In the end the newly minted Obama/Biden ticket left Denver, "fired up, ready to go."
The Republicans met this week in St. Paul and got off to a rocky start. As hurricane Gustav roared toward the Gulf Coast, residents of New Orleans were sent packing. The nation prepared itself for a rerun of three years ago when Katrina buried the Ninth Ward. Disaster was averted, but the Republican convention was scaled back during the first two days of its scheduled run. Gutav's near miss was a reminder that this election is very susceptible to a game changing "act of God" such as a natural disaster, a flare in violence in Iraq or Afghanistan, or another terrorist attack on Americans.
Finally, on day two of their scheduled convention the GOP began to regain its equilibrium and stage its show. The men who would be President each took turns gracing the stage in St. Paul. Romney, Huckabee and Giuliani each took the stage endorsing John McCain - some more successfully than others.
Then came Gov. Sarah Palin. The announcement of her selection last week had taken Americans (and more than a few Republicans) by surprise, and early attention was spent publically vetting the newest star in the political firmament. Her teen daughter is pregnant, her office is implicated in an abuse of power scandal, her husband once belonged to the separatist Alaskan Independence Party. Palin took the stage Wednesday and delivered a well received, albeit sarcastic, speech endearing her to the GOP faithful but raising questions about her vitriol and veracity. Palin was watched by 37 million viewers on television.
Then, last night, came the top of the GOP ticket, Senator John McCain. The speech, which called for political temperance but also set out a specific policy position on the issue of business taxes, relied heavily on Republican bromides mixed with a heavy dose of his experience as a POW in Vietnam. The delivery itself was strained, and the attendees in the hall seemed to receive his exhortations with a mix of bemusement and disinterest. The McCain/Palin ticket leaves St. Paul to the refrain of "Drill Baby Drill."
So what can we say about these past two weeks? One, the Obama campaign seems to have (for the most part) brushed aside questions of party unity and turned his attention to attracting general election voters (conservative Dems, Independents, and Moderate Republicans). The campaign will focus on domestic issues while hammering home McCain's relationship with the unpopular Bush administration. Biden will serve as consigliore on foreign affairs issues and attempt to build support for Obama amongst white, rural/suburban, Roman Catholics.
The McCain campaign on the other hand will focus heavily on narrative issues (his POW experience, her hockey mom appeal) while hammering the Obama campaign as soft on defense. Palin will act as attack dog while McCain parades his POW credentials. The campaign will focus on turning out its base supporters while at the same time trying to reach the same "Scranton voters" that Obama is looking to attract.
In the final analysis, the GOP has more work to do. There are fewer republicans in America today than four years ago. Their base, while enraptured with the Alaskan Governor, is still cool to McCain. Much time, work and money will be spent trying to turn these voters out. The Democrats have the advantage of beginning September with a larger, more unified base of support thus allowing greater resources to be spent attracting general election voters.
Words of caution to each party. Obama must be careful not to become too wonkish....his policy positions need to be buttressed with "real life" and even "personal" examples, which will humanize his ideas and ingratiate himself to Americans. McCain must be careful not to lose his message to the nostalgia of his narrative while at the same time not loosing general election voters who are turned off by Palin's appeals to the GOP base.
Coming out of the conventions, the tables favor a President Obama. |
