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Chill out... Obama's got this... I think...

by: RadicalRuss

Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 00:54:33 AM EDT


There has been a lot of freaking out over here in Left Blogsylvania about recent polls showing the Anti-Maverick/Psycho-MILF ticket with a lead over Obama/Biden.  Everybody take a chill pill, because these polls are bogus.

1) Pay attention to what they call "Party ID" in the sampling.  When they take a poll, they have to weight it with X number of Dems, Y number of Indies, and Z number of Repugs.  But you can't just break that down 33% / 34% / 33%, because that doesn't match the current make-up of the registered voters.  People are leaving the God's Oil Party in droves.

But this latest poll doesn't account for the 11 million new registered Democratic voters that have been churned out by the Obama campaign.  (That's what community organizers do; they register new voters in droves.)  When you oversample Republicans, especially after their convention and the salivating evangenital hypoChristians getting a red meat pick in Gov. Lipstick Pitbull, you're going to get a lead for McSame.

2) Pollsters are talking to people who answer their landlines when they see a polling firm on the Caller ID and are willing to spend fifteen minutes or more of their time speaking with a stranger.  This oversamples the older Americans and the shut-ins and ignores a whole lot of working class people.  Also, many younger people live mobile-only; they have no land lines.  Thus, a whole broad swath of your Democratic voters are ignored in polling.

The purpose of polling is to play to the traditional media's horserace narrative.  They need this to be a close race, or you turn off The Greatest Political Team Assembled In The History Of The Universe and watch football or talent shows or crime dramas instead.  This portion of the narrative is the post-convention-bounce section, so time for McCain's Base to throw him a bone.

3) This ain't John Kerry.  This ain't Al Gore.  This is a guy of Bill Clintonesque political skill who got to the point of auditioning for Bubba's old job despite being a black guy with a funny name (with a Hussein in it!), an admitted cocaine and marijuana user in his youth, a whackaloon pastor for thirty years, with only four years on the national scene and overcoming the "inevitable" nomination of Bill's wife.

4) Close your eyes.  Imagine a split-screen at the debates with Obama and McCain.  If Obama's campaign is smart, they'll require a coin-flip to determine which stands on stage left or stage right and prevent McCain from only being seen from his "good" side.  Ew, what's that thing on McCain's head?  Wow, he sure looks pale.  How much makeup is he wearing?  Man, that dude is old!  Did he just say something?  Folks, I'm thinking Kennedy/Nixon '60 here as far as the gulf between how good and how bad each candidate looks on TV.

5) This is a monumental election and nobody has a clue about just how energized minorities and young people are about this candidate.  Pollsters base their deductions on things like "likely voters" and analysis of past election turnouts.  This election will be like none we've ever seen before and the youth and minority turnout will shock the pundits.

So chill out, everybody calling for Obama to "hit back" and "get tough", meaning that he should respond more forcefully to the character assassinations and sarcastic jibes.  The GOP have nothing to run on if it is a referendum on the past eight years of Republican rule.  Their only hope is to return to the culture war playbook of '00, '02, '04, and '06, and '06 wasn't so good for them.  Unemployment and inflation are at a high, people are freaking out about the economy, nobody wants this stupid war anymore.  

Obama's smart to keep this on the issues.  It's not as satisfying, to use a mixed-martial arts metaphor, as knocking the guy out.  If Obama gets into the petty culture war, name-calling routine, he undermines his message of "not the same old politics as usual".  McCain keeps jabbing, hoping Obama will throw a haymaker and give McCain the opportunity to counter-punch.  Obama's game is to keep flicking out that leg kick to McCain's thigh - "How does this help Americans, how does this address the issues?".  It's not flashy, but over time, it takes out the opponent's legs and then he is helpless.  (OK, not a great metaphor unless you really understand MMA.  McCain's got no ground game and can't knock Obama out, that's what I'm trying to say.)

On the other hand...

RadicalRuss :: Chill out... Obama's got this... I think...
I go to give blood today and the technician working with me asked me what I do for a living.  I told her I have a liberal political talk radio show.  Something pretty close to this conversation took place as she was asking me all of the "Have you ever..." questions and taking my vitals.

"Oh, liberal?  Isn't that bad?  Y'know, like 'bleeding-heart liberal'" she says.

"Uh, no, it actually means someone who believes in the Constitution, the rule of law, fiscal discipline, equality of people, tolerance of differences, and helping our fellow man," I reply.

"Y'know, like 'they wanted to build such-and-such, but the bleeding-heart liberals wouldn't let them', right?"

"I suppose, if you're listening to Rush Limbaugh or watching FOX News."

"Ha ha!  Yeah, Rush Limbaugh, you're like against him?"

"Yeah, I'm like Rush Limbaugh, except I tell the truth."

"So who are you for in the election?"

"Barack Obama all the way."

"What do you think of Sarah Palin?"

"I think she is by far the most unqualified person to run for the vice presidency ever.  She is a liar and a bully, she is clueless on foreign affairs, and her views on most every issue would be disastrous for everyone, especially women."

"Well she has more experience than Obama!"

"Barack Obama was a state senator from a city with 3 million people for eight years, and a US senator from a state of 13 million for four years.  Sarah Palin was a mayor for six years of a small town with less people than Belmont High School in Los Angeles.  If the principal of Belmont High is more qualified than Barack Obama, then Sarah Palin can be a heartbeat away from the presidency."

"Well, I think Obama made a big mistake by not picking Hillary Clinton.  A lot of women really want to see a woman in the White House."

"Sarah Palin is ideologically the complete opposite of Hillary Clinton.  Sarah Palin believes that if your husband rapes your daughter, your daughter should be forced to have the baby.  Sarah Palin believes that girls should get no sex education or contraception, abstinence only.  Sarah Palin believes that Creationism is true and should be taught in science classes.  Sarah Palin believes that polar bears aren't really going extinct and that global warming is a myth, even as the glaciers in her own freakin' state are melting away and polar bears are drowning and turning cannibal!  If any woman who supported Hillary votes for Sarah Palin, they are doing so for the most sexist reason possible and they'll deserve the loss of their reproductive rights!"

"Wow!  They sure got a good one in you - you really get into this stuff."

"It's only the future of our country and our lives.  I guess it's kinda important."

"Well, I heard Obama made a huge mistake in an interview the other day."

"Really.  What was it?"

"He was talking and he said, 'from what I learned in my Muslim upbringing... I mean, my Christian upbringing..."  That's a huge foo paw!"  (It took me a minute to realize she meant "faux pas")  "You can't just say you're something and then say you're something else!"

"You mean like John McCain being for his own immigration bill, then being against it, or being against Bush's tax cuts, then being for them, or being a POW who was tortured and opposed torture, but now he supports it, or being against drilling offshore, but now he's for it?  Or do you mean Sarah Palin, who was for the Bridge to Nowhere before she was against it, or against earmarks while she was taking them?"

"Yeah, but Obama made a big foo paw!  He said he was a Christian!"

"To be honest, I'd prefer if all the candidates would keep their religion to themselves.  I don't care what you pray to, how are you going to get me $2 gas and a job?"

"Don't you think Sarah Palin has really changed the race?  I see all those things on TV where everybody is real excited about her!"

"Yeah, sure, the GOP base never liked McCain much and now the evangelicals have God-fearin', gay-hatin', abortion-fightin', science-denyin' whackadoodle to cheer for.  Seriously, as a woman working in health care, the very worst thing you could do for your rights and your career is to vote for John McCain and Sarah Palin.  Obama is not a Muslim; those are vicious smears by the same people who wanted you to hate him for his Christian pastor that he listened to for twenty years!  Which is it?  You can't hate him for his Christian pastor and for being Muslim at the same time!"

...

"Alright, you're done.  Your blood pressure was 140 over 90.  That's a little high."

"Hmm.  I wonder what could have caused that to happen."

So every time I feel that pang of Hope and longing for Change, I try to remember that there are so many of these people out there.  Nobody ever went broke overestimating human stupidity.  And then there are those Diebold voting machines.

Please, Obama, don't let me down.  Let me trust in you to win this thing.

Poll
Well...
Don't worry, Obama will win
Worry, McCain could pull this off

Results

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I think you are right
This run (from picking Palin until... a time I hope comes soon) is the last gasp of the McCain campaign.  There is nothing left.  When Palin eventually takes substantive positions, she will lose many supporters (just as Obama did when he went from giving his speech in 2004 to actually specifying what he stands for and against in 2008).  These are dark days, but there is plenty of time for the Palin pick to run its course.  There are still reasons for people to switch to Obama, but McCain has reached his high point.  And it isn't rough.

That doesn't mean it isn't frightening.


I can't wait for the debates
I really want to have Obama say that there is one thing he learned from Clinton that he would have hoped McCain learned--"It's the economy, stupid."  Ultimately, that's why we need to get out of the idiotic Iraqi occupation:  it's destroying OUR economy.  We're running huge deficits, while they get to run surpluses.  It's completely insane.

# Duty, duty -- honor is, is --
Honor, Creideiki -- alertly
# Shared, is -- Honor #


Let's not forget...

we said the exact same thing in 2000 and 2004!

Just WAIT for the debates.  Then the media raised the expectations on Gore and Kerry to the absurd and lowered expectations on Bush to where all he had to do was make it off stage without collapsing and they would declare him the "winner".

They will do the same to Obama and Biden.

I think Russ, Obama and the rest of the Democrats continue to underestimate the ignorance and often abject stupidity of the average American voter.

Just look at what American voters did in 2000 (after eight years of peace and unmatched prosperity) and in 2004 after knowing that we were sent into war based on lies.  People in this country vote for the person they want to have a beer with, not the person that will help them to afford a beer.

If we don't wake up to this reality and change the way we respond to Rove campaign tactics, we're gonna wake up on November 5th licking our wounds, singing the blues, wailing and ranting and pointing fingers just like in 2000 and 2004 and we'll get to watch as McCain/Palin secures a super-conservative, super-majority on the Supreme Court that will make the rulings that will affect us for the rest of our lives.

It's time to wake up and fight like hell.  No more playing nice.  No more saying "the American people are tired of dirty politics" (if they were they wouldn't continue to vote for it!  And no more nail bitingly close elections that can be stolen (like Florida in 2000 and Ohio in 2004) when we should be wiping the floor with these scumbags!


[ Parent ]
I do trust Obama and Biden and won't second guess their strategy
On the state electoral maps there has been a slight shift towards McCain,But Obama still leads about 284 to McCain's 230, there have also been shifts counter to McCain too, Florida which was slightly republican has become a toss up state.
I must admit the vindictive and cruel side of me would like to see a slash and burn policy, just as PURE PAYBACK for the last eight years of HELL, but waking up Nov 5th with president elect Obama...is MUCH BETTER.

I read a good post a couple days ago on Obama's blog.

when Obama supporters are happy, we mobilize, when we're sad , we mobilize, when we have sucesses , we moblize, when we get angry, we mobilize.

"race, taste. and History finally overcome....and you ain't there"
by Tony Kushner


Keith Olberman discussed Obama fighting strategy on Rachel's show
he compared McCain's strategy of every morning sending out goons with basebal bats to club everyone in the first 20 rows, and Obama's strategy as much more surgical, stricking back precisely with the right words and right timing.

"race, taste. and History finally overcome....and you ain't there"
by Tony Kushner


I'm with you, Russ
It's going to be a tall wall to climb, but the WaPo pieces this morning (Weisman and Dionne) are just two more on the long list which Obama will use.

I picture some major "ENOUGH!" moment from Obama, whether in a dramatic exchange, or shift in his message, which gives people credit for being smart enough to see McCain-Palin's unseriousness, cynicism, and insults to the voters' intelligence.

The differences in discipline between the two organizations increase the chances that McCain-Palin's message will slip at some point, also, in a fashion that Obama-Biden will take advantage of.

One of the fascinating angles on the Obama discipline, to me, is that his strategies and tools are not leaking out. No drama, no brag-fests, no spin sessions... the project plan is in place for media, advertising, the ground game, public appearances, and that plan is being executed day by day. So, I can't get my hands on 100% of the specific reasons things are going well enough, and I gotta keep doing my part.


I still am nervous enough...
...to hope that someone's keeping an eye on the Diebold machines scattered around the country.  The Dirty Tricks Express ain't done yet.

[ Parent ]
That's what worries me
about all the media hype about the polls being tied, and so little attention being paid to who the polls are actually polling.  If they can get the populace to believe it's really close, then they'll be able to get them to believe a Diebold win for McCain.  

[ Parent ]
The longer the Palin Headlines go, the better.
I hope it lasts until October First.  Palin has not said anything new in the last week.  Every ad I see from McSame/Palin is an attack ad.  Obama responds to the BS on the news shows.  Even Fox News airs Obama's Responses.  

Now Obama has been of message and that does worry me a bit.  But this might be his plan.  The McSame team is trying to avoid being connected to Bush.  But everything so far is the Same.  McSame has not said how he will be different from Bush, nor has Palin.

Buy the end of this month, all the dirt and mud will be ready for the throwing.
All the troopergate stuff should be ready to go.  McSame and his team have been working furiously to cover it up, and they are failing.

Barack Obama will be able to ask the American People one simple question,

During the last month, besides dishonest attacks against me, What has John McCain and Sarah Palin said that would convince you that they will be any different than George W. Bush?

If I make sense? it was quite by accident.


My only worry
Obama's positive message about who he is and what he wants to do is not getting through. The election narrative is about Palin & McCain. "McCain is the same" or "Palin is crazy" does not tell us anything about Barack Obama.

Now, maybe this is a good thing. For almost the entire year this election was about Barack Obama and only Barack Obama. McCain made the election a referendum on "do you trust Barack Obama or not?" and himself hid, you could look at gop.com most days and not even be able to tell who the Republican candidate was. Now it's finally McCain's turn under the spotlight, and to some extent it's good that the question of who John McCain the candidate is is finally getting an airing.

But it's also a little bit too bad because McCain's grab for attention has happened just as Obama was getting going on the real substance of his message. The speech Obama gave the night before Palin was unveiled hit a whole bunch of important red-meat angles in terms of telling people what an Obama Administration would be like and all of those angles have gone mostly neglected during the Palin circus.

I would be most comfortable if I could see McCain and Palin continuing as they are, repeating their same substance-free attacks while batting back Palin's cloud of scandals, while Obama bangs on the issues... McCain and Palin's unwillingness to address issues just becomes that much more obvious the more that Obama can be visibly seen to address those issues himself.


[ Parent ]
2 million, not 11 million
Russ, the figure I saw in the NYT is that in the 28 states where party affiliation is noted with registration, GOP registration has dropped by 344,000 and Democratic registration is up by 2 million.  The link you have doesn't really say Dems have registered 11 million new voters--that would be extraordinary.  Not that two million is anything to sneeze at!

"In order to maintain an untenable position, you have to be actively ignorant."  The Colbert Report

That Reminds Me
Everytime I see these neck and neck polls, I think back to 1980 when the media kept speculating that because Carter and Reagan were virtually tied in the polls it was going to be a close election.  There was even talk of the distinct possibility of them being tied in Electoral votes and the House deciding the election.

Well, as we all know now, in the end, Reagan blew Carter out of the water and all the poll hype by the media was overblown.

Now I know much has changed since 1980, but I'm still inclined to take these polls with a grain of salt.  After all, the only polls that really count are the election returns.

This is why it's crucial for us to work our butts off getting every last Democrat we can think of to the polls on Nov. 4th.  You can be sure the Religious Reich will be doing the same with Repugnacans now that they've canonized Saint Sarah of Wasilla.


Have to stop watching the news shows
I was at Obama's education speech yesterday - it was wonderful to see him in person even if I was in a tiny high school gym seat on the upper tier  (just a volunteer worker, ya, know, but still a good seat).

I left inspired and excited.  Then I spent the afternoon working on data entry for the campaign while MSNBC muttered in the background.  I finally had to turn it to the Weather Channel - the news was all speculation on the Palin effect and it was getting depressing.

I still think Obama can pull this off.  I think he can win Ohio.  I think he can win the election.  

I'm just going to raise shields and stick with local news, Olbermann and Maddow.


Thanks Russ
As unbelievable as it sounds, you are the ONLY person I have heard to mention the possible impact of minority voters.

The television news media have totally discarded that important factor.


Chill out
I voted McCain can pull this off. The person taking your blood is part of why. Another is that many of the new voters are enthused on a first time basis. I not sure w/ the diverse base of new comers that it will be like 1960 where every Irishman in America voted for Kennedy. This same group likely consists of many people whom do not have land lines, but I do not know if they use their cell phones to receive news/data/info from the net. If they do not, they are likely to lose their enthusasism if all they hear is polls from MSM. If they can turn to alternative's like blogs, where they will find comfort in community they are likely to be fired up. More needs to be done about voter suppression which will be in high gear in minority neighborhoods(I've had friends suggest riots may occur if there is a sense Obama is jobbed). Suppression feeds the frustration of powerlessness and nihilism which will lead to people not voting.

I think the thing to do is Hold Fast.


I Still Say Worry
To be blunt, people are stupid. We live in a world of soundbites, and sadly, those soundbites are often the only things voters know about candidates.

Obama is a Muslim. McCain is a mavrek. Palin is against earmarks. Those statements are going to resenate because they are so simple. The fact that none are true is beside the point.  


This election is the Democrats best hope in decades so why all the worry...
Well actually Democrats have every reason to worry.

And part of it is expressed in sentiments like this

"This ain't John Kerry.  This ain't Al Gore.  This is a guy of Bill Clintonesque political skill... (who had)  a whackaloon pastor for thirty years..."

Let's do the pastor first. Wright is vilified by Democratic (sic) and Republican paytriots alike because he says that US military and political support for the apartheid practiced against Palestinians was a prime cause of the barbaric terrorism of 9-11.  And secondly because of his robust anti-racist views.    

Now lets compare Clinton and Obama, but not in terms of their opportunism - that's a given - but in terms of the damage they're capable of.

Bill Clinton was the exception to the Democrats decades long record of being total losers in presidential races. That's because he's a Dixiecrat who tried to fool everyone but in the only ones who got fooled were Democratic (sic) apologists.  Clinton boasted about signing DOMA, just as Obama boasts (every 10 minutes or so, it seems) about his and god's (sic) joint opposition to same sex marriage.

Clinton faked being pro-labor and pro-consumer but rammed NAFTA through and heavily promoted laws deregulating corporate predators. Obama supports NAFTA-like treaties and is in the pockets of the HMOs. He opposes guaranteed heath care for everyone (socialized medicine).

Clinton claimed to be against the war but ordered the embargo of foodstuffs and medicine that was solely responsible for the murder of hundreds of thousands Iraqi children. Clinton initiated the genocide in Iraq: Bush merely followed through using the same lies about terrorism and WMD's first used by Clinton and Gore. Obama promises to continue the murder.

Bush is far and away the least liked US president since Hoover. The Republican Party exposed us to depths of financial corruption and depraved pandering to superstition (think Shively and Dobson) that left tens millions disgusted and angry.  They endorsed NAFTA and other union busting measures and launched an all out attack on civil liberties.

Given that the only debate ought to be is about how high to build their funeral pyre.  But that's not happening.  The truth is that Democrats are running scared again. What terrifies them is not a senescent cretin like McCain or an ultraright Handmaiden of god (sic) like Palin, but the fact that more and more this is beginning to evoke eerie memories of the campaigns of Dukakis and Mondale, Gore and Kerry. What worries Democrats the most is the long memory of voters, who are never as stupid or forgetful as politicians like to believe.

o - we remember the Democrats giving Bush Cheney everything he needed to continue and enlarge the war in Iraq, Pakistan and Afghanistan and breaking their 2006 antiwar pledge.  

o - we remember that while the Democrats controlled Congress for the last two years they continued to stick it to unions, workers and consumers with support for NAFTA, bailouts and tax breaks for the rich and more does of 'benign neglect' for the rest of us. Biden is a paid political hustler for the credit card industry who gutted the bankruptcy laws. Obama is a paid political hustler for the HMO and insurance inddustries who gutted guaranteed health care for all.  

o - it didn't escape our notice that they refused to impeach Bush and Cheney, gutted the Fourth Amendment and renewed the Paytriot act because they plan on continuing the war.

o - everybody here knows how the Democrats treated us. They took a hatchet to ENDA to satisfy the Chamber of Commerce. They tossed the Sheppard Bill overboard after it'd passed both houses. They refused to repeal DADT and DOMA. Obama even ordered our names deleted from his platform - now that's real arrogance.

The campaigns of Mondale, Dukakis, Gore and Kerry were all preceded by a long period of bipartisan backstabbing of labor, ourselves and others. Especially by Clinton, who never forgot his unreconstructed Dixiecrat roots on issues like DOMA, DADT and NAFTA. Each of their campaigns was crippled by that history. When the Republicans unleashed their attack dogs using vehicles like the racist Willie Horton campaign and the swift boating Kerry neither got any sympathy or any votes from the people they'd betrayed over and over.  

November 4th could be quite a surprising day and if the Democrats lose they'll have no one to blame but themselves.



The looter rich much prefer working with Democrats like Obama and the Clintons - they're greedier, they fool more people and they're able to get away with a lot more than Republicans.  


Add the UAFA to DOMA, DADT, NAFTA
On the website LGBT for Obama it states that Obama supports the Uniting American Families Act (UAFA), yet he has failed to cosponsor this vital legislation.

WTF.

Now that he is a senator and has a say in the legislation process is the time to show us his true colours.  I am personally sick or all these feel good speeches about HOPE and CHANGE.  Give us some substantial evidence that things will be different.

So what are binatinal same sex couples supposed to do?

Like we have a choice?


[ Parent ]
Well said!


Cynic, n.  A blackguard whose faulty vision sees things as they are, not as they ought to be.  
-Bierce, The Devil's Dictionary


Hillary must be saying "I Told You So"
I believe Hillary Clinton would have fared far better against John McCain and the nasty way that Republicans fight. She's comfortable fighting in the mud--Obama is more comfortable having a civil, albeit abstract discussion on policy. I suspect that in the end he won't be able to pull this off. Had he picked Clinton as his running mate, McCain wouldn't have been able to have "out-excited" him so easily with his bizarre but effective Palin pick.

Not if she's finally learned to count delegates (erm, Electoral votes)
Take a peek at the state polls. There are far more scenarios with Obama breaking 270 than not. Quite a few even work without Ohio. McCain can turn the red states brick red, but showboating for the press and national polls won't win him an election.

[ Parent ]
You Are SOOOOO Right!
Unless HILLARY and BILL get out there and campaign for him.!!!!

It's the Hammer of JUSTICE,
It's the Bell of FREEDOM,
It's the Song about LOVE between,
my Brothers and my Sisters
...All over this Land.


[ Parent ]
About those high levels of Democratic voter registrations...

don't get too all-fire excited about that.  I'm affraid that too many people who are out registering voters are simply trying to get numbers so that they can pat themselves on the backs about how many people they registered without ANY regard to making sure that the people they registered know HOW and WHERE to vote!

I have been canvassing predominantly African-American and Latino neighborhoods here in Tampa and I am seeing the same disturbing pattern over and over.  I knock on a door and ask the resident if he/she and all adults in the household are registered to vote.  Many of them say "yes" and that they were just registered to vote FOR THE FIRST TIME a week or so earlier by another volunteer.  I ask them if they got an absentee ballot and they say either "yes, but I don't know where it is" or "no".  Both answers are problematic.  I then ask them if they know where their voting precinct is, what early voting is and how the voting process works.  INVARIABLY they say "NO" to ALL THREE questions.  That is EXTREMELY problematic.  What the hell do registration volunteers think a registration is worth if a person who has NEVER voted isn't told how to go about voting or even where to go to cast a vote?

Two million or TWENTY-TWO MILLION new Democrats registered; it won't make one a rat's ass bit of difference if they don't know how to use their registration or where to go to vote on election day!


AMEN!
Registering to vote is NOT voting!

[ Parent ]
Lipstick on a Pig...
I haven't read the whole comment section, but Obama appeared in a school setting this morning and addressed the "Lipstick on a Pig" faux controversy that the McKrusty campaign is trying to drum up in the media (successfully so far) and took exactly the right tone....

...that there are too many SERIOUS problems the US is facing to waste time on this manufactured controversy...he was magnificent, and I doubt the story has legs now that he has chopped it off at the knees...he was humorous and serious in turn and I thought he said just the right things to stifle it.


Good Info!
Thanks for the polling info. I suspected that the youth vote was undercounted by pollsters. It's annoying that the polling process is never explained when the results are provided, and the impression that the information covers a wider group is given.

RadicalRuss's conversation while giving blood is interesting. As a military retiree, this summer I went in for a check up at a local military base and had to wait to be called. Unfortunatedly, Fox News was on, and I got pissed by moment even as I tried to tune it out. When I was called and my blood pressure was taken, of course it was higher than normal. About ten minutes later my blood pressure was taken again, and it had dropped by 8 point. It is sad that at many military locations, Fox News is the "selected" news source. I hope Obama stops that mandate when he is elected.


It's the states, stupid
This really comes down to which STATES can turn out the Obama vote. If you live in Massachusetts, I hope you're contributing to the Obama campaign in a state like Colorado or Virginia, who surely need your support much mroe than a sold blue state does.

The way the map is going, it looks like if Obama can hold on to NH, flip NM and IA (the "low-hanging fruit" since they went Blue in 2000), as well as Nevada and Colorado, he's got it. VA or FL, even OH, are longshots and certainly chock full of Electoral votes, but I think the battleground will come down to Colorado--home of Focus on the Family. That gives me chills like little else I can think of.

Again, if you want to contribute to a campaign, I'd strongly consider sending it straight to the Colorado Obama HQ or the Colorado Democratic headquarters. Methinks it will be ugly.


Colorado
  Last poll I saw has Obama up by 6.  McSame has been pumping money into ads here, but they are all attack ads.  Mark Udall is also doing well, though I haven't seen any polling data.

 One thing to remember is in 2006 Colorado flipped blue big time.  And things have been happening here for good changes.  Also in Colorado, the Enviroment is a big issue as well is the economy and unemployment.

 And just one more thing.  As I have mentioned I work at the airport here in Denver, alot of people are moving here, mostly from red states as they have gotten tired of living in places dominately republican.  Although Democrats leaving red states doesn't help the states they left, it does help Colorado.

If I make sense? it was quite by accident.


[ Parent ]
I hope so
But looking at the newspaper headlines this past couple of weeks here (the Rocky Mountain News, the Denver Post), it's all been about the Palin effect, about she and McSame attacking Obama (I can't remember the exact phrasing, but it wasn't talking about the desperation of attack ads, it was saying something akin to "they pounced him"), and otherwise, Palin, Palin, Palin.  Granted, I don't get the paper so I don't read them regularly, but the huge headlines and pictures that took up the front page were all GOP.  If that's what people in this state are reading non stop, and they're not hearing actual talk about actual issues from Obama because the papers are only covering God's Own Party, then Gods help us.

Also, even among liberals, there are fair-sized Ron Paul and Ralph Nader factions here too, from what I can tell.  I'm really hoping that we don't have a Nader effect like what happened to Gore in 2000.

And yes, please don't underestimate the power of stupid.  People call Obama "elitist," I think not because he's wealthy (John and Cindy have him beat there - seven houses) or liberal or whatever, but because he's intelligent.  He speaks to people with brains.  If people don't understand policy, they go to the guy (and gal) that put in simple terms, "That guy will tax you.  We're mavericks."  Because they think, "Yeah!  Mavericks are good!  Taxes are bad!"  And they believe it because they understand it.  Most people don't do research into policies and voting records of their candidates.  They listen to their talking head/pastor/family member/whomever and buy into all the rhetoric and don't bother actually thinking for themselves.  When I confronted someone (who shalt remain nameless) about their insultingly untrue email forwards regarding Obama, he got mad and even said that he knew they had a lot of BS in them, but he still wasn't voting for Obama.  I said... if you know they're full of BS, then why do you send them?  Actually researching this stuff is not the point.  Getting some email appealing to your patriotism is what they care about.  I am afraid.  When I told someone that I didn't listen to the MSM talking heads to make my decision between Obama and Hillary, and instead I went online and researched their policies, they were surprised.  "You don't listen to any talk shows?"  No.  "Didn't you see this piece on the news or this commercial?"  No.  "How can you find out their policies online?"  ...SERIOUSLY?  I accept that some people are computer illiterate, but you must know that the candidates have websites, no?  Google, even?  Apparently not.

So yeah, I'm worried.


[ Parent ]
McCain/Palin are on AUTO-DESTRUCT
The more ads and lying speeches they give, the more MSM is catching on to them. Obama and Biden take the day off you deserve a rest, and let McCain dig his own grave.

"race, taste. and History finally overcome....and you ain't there"
by Tony Kushner


I prefer that people worry - it makes them work harder
I hope the polls remain close and don't show Obama with a big lead before election day, because then a whole bunch of people won't bother to go vote.  Better that it remain close so that people are motivated to take the time and trouble, knowing that their vote is important and will make a difference.  Volunteering to be a poll watcher would also be a good idea, to keep an eye on the dirty tricks squad.  In this election we are either going to elect our first mixed race President or our first female Vice-President, and people might want to think about how they're going to explain to their grandkids that they didn't bother to go see history being made.

Crow

I'm worried, but I am still trying to chill....
We should be worried because of the dirty politics and election thefts of the past two Presidential elections, but I think that one can worry and chill at the same time.  I think that Obama is doing what he should be doing -- trying to stay on message, but to strike back in a very concise and pointed manner to the negative attacks/smoke and mirror act that McCain/Palin/Rove are performing for a largely ignorant public.

I've had similar conversations with people like the one who drew your blood and it is mind-blowing to say the least.  And these people are everywhere.  Someone recently told me that if McCain/Palin got elected that Roe v Wade would still not be overturned and that political appointments to the court really didn't matter because congress would straighten it all out. I'm not kidding....

But I have faith in Obama/Biden to know how to deal with this.  Yes, he got knocked off message for a little while, but he is making his way back and just wait for the 527 ads to start appearing for the Obama/Biden ticket.  We'll see some waking up there.... It is the economy, Iraq, the Environment, Bush-Cheney, Corruption, and CHANGE and Obama knows that.  But we have to do our part and more to pull this off.  We have to be the best community organizers we can be and show those idiots why we are so important.  Palin seems to forget that women who were community organizers were the one that got her the vote to begin with.

Lana
_________________________________
http://profile.to/lanalawrence/


maybe it's being in Louisiana
but the endless sea of stupid feels like a tsunami at times. You'd think anyone with a head could see what a disaster Palin is, and yet somehow they haven't...yet.
As the most famous fictional southerner once said,

" I'll think about it tomorrow, I'll go crazy if I think about it today"

SCARLET

"race, taste. and History finally overcome....and you ain't there"
by Tony Kushner


We can't assume anything and we can't let up!
The Obama campaign was brilliant all the way through the primaries.  Great strategies, great execution, and great ideas, like the foreign trip and the acceptance speech in the stadium.  

But they haven't had to deal with the true sleaziness of the Rove Playbook until now.

Here are the rules now.

As long as McCain/Palin say they are anti-choice, anti-gay, and anti-gun control, they will have major voting blocs sewn up.  Little else matters to these people.  Throw in patriotism (real or false) and stoke people's fears about terrorists or gays, and they've got it made.

They can lie and get away with it.  Everyone will see the attack ad or hear the lie from the podium, and many of them will believe it.  Only a fraction of them will see the rebuttal or the story the next day disproving the lie.  

Many Americans are stupid, lazy, and petty.  They don't understand the economy, the political situations behind the war, or anything about rights or policies.  And they are too lazy to learn.  They'd rather have a catchy sound bite, and they're much more excited about petty, tawdry things like lipstick on a pig or Barack being a secret muslim than anything substantial about issues that really matter.

If we could have intellectual policy debates about issues that really matter, Obama would win hands-down.  But most people can't or won't handle this.  So we're stuck with sound bites, lies, character smears, and attack ads, because they're titillating and memorable and that's all most simple-minded Americans can process.

And here's one more very real factor.  Obama is black.  Some people will say that race doesn't matter and they will vote for him, but in the privacy of the voting booth, they don't.  Up to 10% of the votes could drop off due to this reason.  Virginia Governor Douglas Wilder enjoyed a comfortable lead going into the election, but just squeaked by.  Same thing for New York Mayor David Dinkins.  There are several other examples as well, I'm just not recalling them now.

We can't let up or take anything for granted.  Not for a single day.


Obama is Black = 10% of the votes that could drop off?
  I can't buy that for one reason.  People who can't vote for someone because of skin color are Republicans.  I would say that one reason the race is so close is because the race issue, but those minds have been made up for quite sometime.

 Now if there was a poll question that asked directly if you could vote for a black person, the results would be very high.  They are just like the people who say they are not homophobic because they claim to have gay friends.

If I make sense? it was quite by accident.


[ Parent ]
when you 85% of Americans said the country was going in the wrong direction
was ya just yankin' our chain?

You vote in McCain Nov 4th for his "Country First" and saddle the rest of us with 4 more years of a Cheney Nightmare Reign of HELL

Nov 5th you won't recognise what remains of this country

"race, taste. and History finally overcome....and you ain't there"
by Tony Kushner


G*D DAMN IT biden you're an attack dog...start GROWLING and bare your fangs
something like this

AMERICA LETS REVIEW

You want the oldest old fool who doesn't know which countries border Pakistan, wouldn't know a Shiite from a f*ckin hole in the ground without Lieberman acting as a human teleprompter, and doesn't know how many homes he owns.
He ranked 894th in a class of 899, he dumped a disabled First Wife for a younger blonde heiress drug addict, and covered up her pill-fering from a CHILDREN'S CHARITY.
AND
He selects someone with ZERO National Affairs credentials, who needed 5 colleges in 6 years to get a Journalism degree, will impose her bizarre fringe Christian Reich sect which preaches Creationism, rapture, and Jews for Jesus and "curing Homosexuals, she abused her powers of governor in a personal vendetta, LIES constantly, and wanted to ban books so much she fired the librarian who DEFIED her.and she will impose her EXTREMIST anti-CHOICE views on every American woman...without even the limitations of women raped or incest victims.

well what the F*CK could go wrong with this picture?

"race, taste. and History finally overcome....and you ain't there"
by Tony Kushner


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